Measuring progress toward Goal 2025: Lumina Foundation’s metrics
Lumina believes the first step in reaching Goal 2025 is for individuals and groups to commit to a specific and challenging goal to increase higher education attainment. We also believe data and metrics are essential to measure progress, to keep people engaged and on track, and to modify and refine approaches. This commitment to evidence-based decisions and action is reflected in our Strategic Plan, which is meant to guide Lumina’s work through 2016.
The first step in reaching Goal 2025 is for individuals and groups to commit to a specific and challenging goal to increase higher education attainment. Data and metrics are also essential to measure progress, keep people engaged and on track, and to modify and refine approaches.
Clearly, the gains we expect to make during the plan’s relatively brief period won’t amount to full achievement of Goal 2025. Still, significant progress must be made in those years, and that progress must be measurable. For this reason, Lumina has identified a set of metrics — 10 contributing goals or aims, 10 quantifiable targets, if you will — that we expect to hit by 2016. We’re convinced that, by hitting these interim targets, we’ll stay on track to achieve Goal 2025.
Those 10 metrics — all targets for achievement by 2016 — are:
- Increase the percentage of Americans who believe increasing higher education attainment is necessary to the nation to 55 percent.
- Increase the percentage of students who pursue postsecondary education directly from high school to 67.8 percent.
- Increase the first-time participation rates of older adults to 1.3 percent.
- Increase higher education enrollment among Hispanic students to 3.3 million.
- Increase higher education enrollment among African-American students to 3.25 million.
- Increase total higher education enrollment by 4 million students to 22 million.
- Reduce by 800,000 the number of working-age adults (25-64 years old) with some college and no degree.
- Increase the overall higher education completion rate (first-time/full-time, within 6 years) to 60 percent.
- Increase the higher education completion rate to 48 percent for adult learners (ages 25-64).
- Increase the number of associate and bachelor’s degrees awarded annually to 3 million.
The accompanying infographic shows how we will gauge our performance against those metrics. For each target, we use 2012 as the baseline year, and we’ve also established an interim target for 2014. Finally, to better understand trends, we offer, when possible, a measure of past performance (2009) on each metric.
In addition to the performance-measurement efforts described here, we also plan to develop several new indicators between now and 2016. Those new indicators include:
- A data-collection source for developmental education (academic preparedness) to measure the increase in the percentage of students who are academically prepared to enter postsecondary education. The proposed target is to increase the number of students not requiring developmental education by 20 percent.
- A standardized way to collect data on prior learning assessment. The proposed target is to increase the number of students receiving credit based on assessment of prior learning to 40 percent (from a current rate of 24 percent, based on a 2010 study by the Council for Adult and Experiential Learning [CAEL]).
- A data-collection source for “transparent pathways” based on the adoption of Lumina-developed approaches. The proposed target is that 10.3 million postsecondary certificate holders gain transparent pathways to associate and baccalaureate degrees.
- A method to count and capture high-quality certificates. The proposed target is 8 percent in 2025.
We strive to use all of our metrics to accurately gauge and improve our own work. We also are seeing an increased interest in and use of metrics among our grantees, our partner organizations and throughout the field. We believe it is important and necessary to improve metrics and data use throughout postsecondary education, and we will continue to support such efforts.